Election Night Predictions

Election Night Predictions

On election day, it’s time for predications. Here is mine: A jubilant Tuesday night for the GOP as the party makes gains across the board, but a more tempered Wednesday morning as Republicans realize that they left seats on the table that should have been theirs for the taking. Let’s get specific:

Senate: I see the Republican’s netting 10 seats in the Senate and taking the majority. Republicans pick up Democrat seats in MT, WV, SD, AR, NC, NH, AK, IA, CO, and LA (albeit in a Dec. run off). David Perdue avoids a run-off in GA and preserves the seat for Republicans, and the Kansas GOP infrastructure is able to pull Pat Robert’s incompetent campaign across the finish line against independent chameleon Greg Orman. I’m also not going to be surprised if Ed Gillespie in VA, Jeff Bell in NJ, Alan Weh in NM, Mike McFadden in MN, or Jim Oberweis in IL hold incumbent Democrats under 55%. Wednesday morning the national Republican party is going to wonder what might have been if it hadn’t spent millions of dollars attacking conservatives in primaries to get Roberts and Thad Cochran (R-MS) over the finish line and instead had that money available to go after Democrats in some of these late breaking races.

Governor races: This is a complete jump ball with many toss up races and countervailing trends. Ultimately I see the national environment’s conservative tilt pushing some exceeding close races toward the GOP, with the Party netting 2 seats to raise the number of state houses Republicans control to 31. Democrats pick up PA, AK, ME and FL as “Fangate” costs Rick Scott in a race that will be decided by a hair length. Republicans pick up AR, MA, MD, IL, CT, and CO. Late movement toward Republicans has put the state houses in RI, NH, OR, and MN in play but I see all these blue states staying with the Democrats. Likewise I see Scott Walker holding on in Wisconsin and Rick Snyder prevailing in MI.
House: I see Republicans netting 12+ house seats to bring their commanding majority up to 246+ seats. I can easily imagine some sleeper races going to Republicans and making their margins wider, but that optimism is tempered by my expectation that poor candidates and underwhelming campaigns will cost Republicans some seats. In this category I include Lee Terry (R-NE2) and Steve Southerland (R-FL2), both of whom I see losing and having only themselves to blame.

State Legislatures: These races don’t get national attention but when a state legislative chamber flips partisan control the political impact can match that of the races up higher on the ballot. That being the case, it will be in the state legislatures that the biggest impact of the Republican wave will be felt. I predict Republicans taking control of the Nevada state house and senate, the Iowa senate, and the Colorado senate. The results in Nevada and Iowa will be particularly significant because they will give Republicans complete control of the government in both 2016 battle grounds.

Whatever the results, I hope everyone votes and helps others to do the same, and may we all appreciate the wonderful nature of our republican (note the small “r” on this one!) form of government. Should the results not go as any of us may hope, we will have a wonderful opportunity in two years to make our voices heard again.

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